The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently out of the playoffs due to tiebreakers, but the team still has a good chance at earning a spot amongst the six NFC teams to have a chance to win the Super Bowl. It will be a challenging two weeks, but there is still a possibility that the Bucs can clinch a spot. Here is the breakdown of all the possible outcomes.
Option one: The Bucs miss the playoffs
The first way is obvious: Lose both of their next two games and the Buccaneers finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs.
The next challenge is if the Buccaneers lose one of their games. This would eliminate their chances of getting a Wild Card spot, but if the Atlanta Falcons lose both of their games, the Bucs would win the NFC South with a 9-7 record due to tiebreakers with the Falcons.
Now it starts to get more complex.
The Bucs can win out, finishing 10-6, and still miss the playoffs, but that depends on some results from other games. First, Atlanta needs to win out, which would give the Falcons an 11-5 record and the NFC South title. Second, the Green Bay Packers need to win out, beating the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Eve and the Detroit Lions on New Year’s Day. This gives the Packers a 10-6 record and the NFC North title. Those same Detroit Lions must beat the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football, something made more likely as the New York Giants lost on Thursday and gave the Cowboys the NFC East title, along with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs; meaning the Cowboys have nothing to play for. Finally, the Giants need to bounce back from their loss and beat the Washington Redskins on New Year’s Day, which would give them an 11-5 record and a Wild Card spot.
If this happens, Detroit would be the sixth seed, the Giants would be the fifth seed and Atlanta and Green Bay would be the division winners, leaving the Buccaneers out of the playoffs.
Option two: The Bucs make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
First, the Bucs must win out. Second, so do the Falcons. These outcomes are very likely, as the teams swap divisional opponents during the next two weeks, and both the Saints and the Panthers are much weaker this season than expected. Next, the Cowboys beat the Lions. If this happens, the Bucs clinch a playoff spot before week 17.
Now comes the complicated parts. If the Cowboys lose to the Lions, it comes to week 17. There, the Lions must beat the Packers in a game that would decide the NFC North title. In Detroit and Tampa’s favor is the fact that the Lions will be the home team in that game.
This scenario give the Buccaneers the sixth seed and a first round trip to Detroit, who will be locked into the third seed regardless of the results of any other games.
Another way to get the Bucs in is if the Giants lose to the Redskins, which would tie New York and Tampa Bay at 10-6, but the Bucs would earn the tiebreaker based on win percentage in conference games.
Option three: The Buccaneers win the NFC South
This is exciting since it would give Tampa Bay a home game in the playoffs, and it wouldn’t take more than the Falcons blowing it in the last two weeks. Regardless of the rest of the games, if Atlanta loses one of their next two games and the Buccaneers win out, the Bucs win the division.
Option four: The Buccaneers finish with the second seed and earn a first round bye.
The only reason this is here is because it is mathematically possible. It requires an insane amount of good fortune and is extremely unlikely to happen, but stranger things have.
First, Tampa must win out. Second, Atlanta must lose at least one game. Third, Green Bay must lose to Minnesota and the Arizona Cardinals must beat the Seattle Seahawks on Christmas Eve and Detroit must lose to Dallas on Dec. 26. Finally, the Seahawks would then need to lose to or tie the currently 1-13 San Francisco 49ers.
In this extreme scenario, the Buccaneers would finish 10-6 and gain a first round bye, but this is not something to expect.
Overall, the final two weeks of the NFL Regular Season will certainly hold a ton of excitement for the Tampa Bay Area.